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A Political Riddle and Bonus Rant

About "For All Your Rational Thought Needs"

Previous Entry A Political Riddle and Bonus Rant Jan. 8th, 2008 @ 11:22 pm Next Entry
Here's a riddle for you:

Q: What is Obama without Dennis Kucinich's supporters behind him?

A: Second Place.

But in all seriousness, this worries me. The polls were off (pre-polls like this tend to have large margins of error) but that is not how the media may play it. The media these days are all about "stories" they don't want facts they want a narrative. There is a movement underfoot in this country to get rid of exit polling because, "they are not accurate." Exit polling is an incredably accurate way to determine if there is electoral fraud or funny business. Whenever the US/UN helps set up foreign democracies they demand and relay HEAVILY on exit polls. Exit polls are completely different than these pre-polls. People who understand statistics understand that, but the media may not. I'm afraid this is going to be another "plot" in the media's asinine story that polls don't work and exit polling should be dropped. That is incredably scary. It is, in my mind, the worst thing that could happen in our republic, worse than electric voting or no paper trail. Get rid of exit polling and you effectively get rid of the first and in many ways last line of defense against fraud.
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Date:January 10th, 2008 12:36 pm (UTC)
i don't think the media will ever advocate getting rid of exit polls because it's where they get all their information for the evening news and the morning papers. it's fine to question the discrepancy between the pre-polls and the results and wonder what happened and question the validity of the pre-polls (my favourite explanation was that people are less likely to give the answer to a phone pollster that they'd never vote for a black candidate, saving that for the solitude of the voting booth!). but where they do us all a disservice is when there's a discrepancy between exit polls and official returns (like in 2004) and instead of questioning the validity of the official results, they get all introspective and say their exit polling methods must somehow be flawed. as for what happened in NH, I think Hillary's emotional moment appealed to a lot of women who had previously lined up behind Obama and they changed their minds last minute. That, and lots of the independents backed McCain instead.
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